Job-Seeker Confidence among 2025 Graduate: How Japan’s Newest Entrants View Their Prospects

romagorman0511max
May 8
4 min read

Japan’s recent graduates (and the current “26sotsu and 27sotsu” students already chasing early offers) are stepping into a labour market unlike any in recent memory. Inflation has finally nudged wages up, demographic shortages continue to tighten recruiting pipelines, and generative-AI skills are changing how workers operate in their day-to-day. Whether students feel confident shapes everything from how many firms they apply to, to whether they hold out for a “first-choice” naitei (early job offers) or accept the first offer that lands.

A quick scan of spring data shows that optimism is real but brittle: hiring appetite is strong, yet macro headwinds (inflation, stock-market uncertainty, etc) and fast-changing selection methods keep anxiety high. Below we unpack the numbers, the reasons behind them, and what they mean for fresh and recent graduates.

1 | The 2025 Hiring Climate at a Glance

The below table lists three indicators of hiring climate - Naitei Rate, Corporate Fulfilment Rate, and Tankan Diffusion Index. Taken together, the table signals substantial bargaining power for job seekers. Demand for young talent continues to outstrip supply, yet students’ own sentiment wobbles with every macro headline.

Indicator	Latest reading	What it implies
Recruit Works “Naitei” Rate (26-sotsu)	61.6 % already had at least 1 naitei at 1 Apr 2025, up 3.5 pts y/y *1	Early-offer momentum is stronger than last year, which should signify a confidence booster.
Mynavi Survey—2025 Corporate Fulfilment Rate	70 %, the lowest since the survey began *2	Companies are still scrambling for hires—good news for seekers.
BOJ Tankan—Diffusion Index for Large Corporations	-28 diffusion index for Employment (Large corporations), Mar 2025 *3	The negative diffusion index suggests large companies are in need and are seeking more workers

2 | What’s Driving (or Dampening) Confidence?

Multiple factors play a role in driving / dampening job-seeker confidence. Here, we highlight some of the potential causes of changes in confidence, including: Macro & Policy Signals, Corporate Hiring Behaviour, and Student Psychology.

2.1 Macro & Policy Signals

Steady but unspectacular GDP growth and a 2 %-plus inflation rate mean real wage gains are finally visible. The OECD notes Japan’s labour market “remains tight” with 2.4 % unemployment and shortages in ICT, construction, and logistics. *4
Work-style reform 2.0 caps overtime for truck drivers from April 2024, pushing firms to automate and re-staff—opening fresh opportunities but also sparking uncertainty about job content. Some industries may see a drastic change in how they operate in the coming few years.

2.2 Corporate Hiring Behaviour

Front-loaded recruiting: More firms opened their entry portals in December instead of March, catching some students off guard—confidence dips when processes feel accelerated.

Digital selection tools: AI video-interview screening and coding-challenge platforms reward tech-savvy candidates but intimidate candidates who are not familiar with these tools. STEM students might have an advantage in these digital selection tools, but this is all dependent on the position you are applying for.

2.3 Student Psychology

“Opportunity cost” paradox: A glut of job posts can lower confidence by overwhelming choice; career-centre counsellors report decision fatigue among students who secure multiple naitei by July yet still doubt fit.

Pandemic after-echoes: Cohorts that spent early university years online feel they lack networking “soft muscle,” making them wary of in-person assessment centres. Though most of teaching was back in-person for many students graduating in 2026 onwards, this is likely to play a role for many students who were affected by different teaching settings.

3 | How Employers See the Class of 2025

It helps to know where the hiring heat is coming from and why it feels different inside each corridor of Japan’s economy - some sectors are in all-out talent grabs, while others are cherry-picking niche skill sets, and a few may be quietly re-engineering roles before they hire at scale. The snapshots below unpack that nuance, so you can focus prep time on industries whose hiring appetite and preferred skill signals best match your background.

Sector	Hiring stance	Skills in shortest supply
ICT / SaaS	Aggressive. Nearly 80 % plan to grow graduate intakes, leveraging yen weakness to export services.	Cloud security, full-stack TS/React, prompt-engineering.
Automotive & Mobility	Selective expansion. EV + software shift births new job families despite overall volume cuts.	Model-based dev, Li-ion battery chemistry, embedded ML.
Regional mid-sized firms	Catch-up mode. Labour shortages acute; many drop GPA screens and court foreign graduates.	Multilingual sales, cross-border logistics, process automation.

Mynavi’s November pulse found 19 % of listed companies are piloting “Fast-Pass” schemes—guaranteeing mid-career interviews to today’s rejected applicants—an explicit hedge against future shortages.*2'

4 | Confidence-Building Playbook for Job Seekers

Now that we have seen the job market trend, that is for the most part in favor of job-seekers, you should feel more confident about finding a job after graduating. To further boost your confidence, try some of the actions listed below:

Map demand hotspots ICT, digital-green transition, and social infrastructure roles offer the widest berth of vacancies and the quickest selection cycles.
Build small proof points Micro-credentials (AWS Cloud Practitioner, JLPT N1/N2 for international students) correlate strongly with earlier naitei issuance in Recruit Works data sets.
Practise asynchronous pitching With one-way video interviews now mainstream, recording concise, energetic responses is as important as polishing your suit for the onsite panel.
Leverage demographic advantage The supply-demand gap means negotiating power has tilted your way—don’t shy from asking about starter salary bands and remote-work policies.

5 | Key Takeaways

Hiring appetite remains solid, yet student confidence is fragile, slipping when macro headlines sour
Early naitei rates beat last year’s pace, but corporate fulfilment rates lag, signalling leverage for job seekers
Skill signalling—via micro-credentials, internships, and bilingual abilities—pays off fastest in a market flooded with AI-aided screening
Staying confident in 2025 means understanding both the numbers and the narrative: demand is real, but so is the need to adapt quickly.

As you weigh your next steps, distill the noise down to a few core truths. The data confirm opportunity, but the lived experience of 2025 job-hunting may still be a bit of a roller coaster. Grasp these final signals—what’s sturdy, what’s shaky, and where you hold the cards—and you’ll navigate the ride with far more control.

(Editor：Jelper Club Editorial Team）